This article examines the time between product development and market launc
h, and its relation to rite subsequent diffusion of consumer durables. We f
ind that this "incubation time" is long. Further, it is a useful predictor
of the shape of the subsequent sales diffusion curve. Using the Bass model
as a base, we find that the longer the incubation rime, the lower the coeff
icient of innovation (p) and the longer the time to peak sales. Further, us
ing the incubation time in a Bayesian forecasting model significantly impro
ves forecasts early in die life cycle. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.