Extent and impact of incubation time in new product diffusion

This article examines the time between product development and market launc h, and its relation to rite subsequent diffusion of consumer durables. We f ind that this "incubation time" is long. Further, it is a useful predictor of the shape of the subsequent sales diffusion curve. Using the Bass model as a base, we find that the longer the incubation rime, the lower the coeff icient of innovation (p) and the longer the time to peak sales. Further, us ing the incubation time in a Bayesian forecasting model significantly impro ves forecasts early in die life cycle. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.