System dynamics applications to European health care issues

Taking a European perspective, a review is made of some system dynamics mod els which address health care issues. Suggestions are made for the types of role which these models should take, bearing in mind the strategic orienta tion of system dynamics modelling. Examples are described of qualitative mo dels where influence diagrams are the main analytical tool. Quantitative sy stem dynamics models have a contribution to make in epidemiological studies and have been used to analyse the AIDS epidemic. A detailed example of one aspect of model formulation is given. This concerns the AIDS incubation ti me distribution and shows how real-world complications arising from virolog ical staging and treatment effects are handled in a model of AIDS spread.