Pinniped population dynamics in central California: Correlations with sea surface temperature and upwelling indices

We investigated effects of marine climate variability on pinniped populatio ns and assessed the initial stages of recovery following implementation of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) based on long-term (1973-1997) population surveys at the South Farallon Islands and Point Reyes Peninsula , central California. California sea lions increased over the study period, with peak numbers observed during and after major El Nino events. The rate of increase for California sea lions appears to have decreased in recent y ears. Steller sea lions decreased at the South Farallon Islands and remain depleted at Point Reyes Peninsula. Harbor seal populations increased in a l ogistic and non-linear fashion at Point Reyes Peninsula and the South Faral lon Islands, respectively. Harbor seals were more abundant at the South Far allon Islands during years of relatively high sea-surface temperature, whic h may be related to their inability to find sufficient prey in coastal wate rs under these conditions. Northern elephant seal abundance increased in a logistic fashion over the study period at both the South Farallon Islands a nd Point Reyes Peninsula; however, productivity at the South Farallon Islan ds decreased in recent years. Maximum haul-out numbers for elephant seals a t the South Farallon Islands increased in the 1970s, maintained an asymptot e throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, but recently declined; additional s tudies are needed to investigate which age classes are associated with this decline. Protection afforded by the MMPA has facilitated partial to full r ecovery of all populations except for Steller sea lion. Oceanographic relat ionships do not appear to confound interpretations of population recovery a nd may help to explain changes in the Steller sea lion population.