Urban development often impacts the economic development pattern and the sp
acial distribution of resource allocation of a particular area. Urban devel
opment can be conceptualized as a multicriteria decision-making problem; th
erefore, multicriteria evaluation has been used to trace the trend of urban
development, In this paper, a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation model is deve
loped to study the trend of urban development. First, a multilayer evaluati
on index system is presented; it is used to conduct horizontal analysis on
urban systems. Second, a fuzzy, multicriteria, multilayer evaluation model
is proposed, Third, the detailed modeling aspects are discussed which inclu
de the fuzzy evaluation models under different evaluation rules, the method
s used to determine the weights of criteria, and the determination of the m
embership grades of evaluation matrix. The model has been implemented and t
he application results indicate that the proposed model is able to represen
t those important factors affecting urban development layer-by-layer and st
age-by-stage. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.