Prediction of summer temperature, rainfall and pressure in Europe from preceding winter North Atlantic ocean temperature

Statistical prediction of July-August Central England Temperature (CET) usi ng January-February sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the North A tlantic was described by Colman (1997), Int. J. Climatol., 17, 1285-1300. I n this paper, the method is extended to examine the predictability of rainf all, surface temperature and pressure in Europe. Using a January-February N orth Atlantic SSTA pattern as predictor, it is found that mean, minimum and maximum July-August temperatures over much of northwest Europe are predict able using linear regression with correlation skills in the range 0.4-0.7, while July-August rainfall and surface pressures are less predictable, with correlation up to 0.4. July-August temperatures in southeast Canada and th e northeast USA are also predictable, with correlation up to 0.3. The predictability of other seasons and timescales is also investigated. Fo r UK temperature, half-month to 2-monthly ranges were considered; predictiv e correlation skills are best for the period from mid July to the end of Au gust. The highest correlations are from predictions of August temperature i n eastern France, where correlation over 50 years exceeds 0.7. For other se asons, long-lead predictability from North Atlantic SSTA was found to be mu ch less than for the summer season. Analysis of composite cases shows an association of predictable warm summer s with movement of anomalously warm SSTA across the North Atlantic from the East Coast of the USA to the northwest European coast during spring months . Predictability of cold summers seems to be related to persistence of anom alously cold sea surface temperatures (SST) near, or to the east of, the UK throughout spring. Coherence between the winter SST and the summer temperatures is strongest a t 7-8 years. Other studies have 'revealed North Atlantic ocean variability at this timescale. Copyright (C) 1999 Controller, Her Majesty's Stationery Office, Norwich, England.