Modelling the impact of BSE policy on agriculture in England and Wales

A dynamic model of United Kingdom (UK) milk and beef production and a linea r programming model of land use in England and Wales were used to explore t he likely impact on agriculture in England and Wales of measures to elimina te Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in the UK. Three different scenar ios were explored that reflecting uncertainties concerning the future deman d for UK beef. Projections show marketed beef output up to 20% lower in 200 0 compared to the 1995 level and an extensification of beef production in r esponse to the BSE crisis. This extensification may have environmental bene fits and mean that producers are better prepared to respond to Agenda 2000 reforms. The findings highlight the importance of restoring consumer confid ence in UK beef and the complete removal of the worldwide ban on UK beef ex ports. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.