This article, which synthesizes the results of more than 140 economic model
s analyzing the causes of tropical deforestation, raises significant doubts
about many conventional hypotheses in the debate about deforestation. More
roads, higher agricultural prices, lower wages, and a shortage of off-farm
employment generally lead to more deforestation. How technical change, agr
icultural input prices, household income levels, and tenure security affect
deforestation-if at all-is unknown. The role of macroeconomic factors such
as population growth, poverty reduction, national income, economic growth,
and foreign debt is also ambiguous. This review, however, finds that polic
y reforms included in current economic liberalization and adjustment effort
s may increase the pressure on forests. Although the boom in deforestation
modeling has yielded new insights, weak methodology and poor-quality data m
ake the results of many models questionable.