EVALUATING GPA AND MCAT SCORES AS PREDICTORS OF NBME-I AND CLERKSHIP PERFORMANCES BASED ON STUDENTS DATA FROM ONE UNDERGRADUATE INSTITUTION

Purpose. To examine the relationships among under graduate student cha racteristics, standardized indicators of medical school academic perfo rmance, and clinical performances in an institution where the undergra duate grading system was not a confounding factor. Method. In 1993 dat a were collected retrospectively for the classes of 1990-1993 in the U niversity of California, Riverside (UCR)/University of California, Los Angeles, Biomedical Sciences Program, in which all the students compl eted their undergraduate studies at UCR. Data were collected on the st udents' demographic characteristics, undergraduate grade-point average s (UGPAs), Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores, National Boar d of Medical Examiners Part I (NBME I) scores, and clinical performanc es as measured by core clerkship grades. Regression analyses were used to evaluate (1) the relationship between clinical performances and da ta available at admission and (2) the relationship between NBME I scor es and the same variables. The top and bottom 25% of each class were i dentified by UGPAs and compared by their NBME I scores and clinical pe rform ances to determine whether differences noted at admission contin ued to separate the students. Differences were tested using independen t two-tailed t-tests. Results. Of the 92 students, data were available for 88 (96%); 39% were female and 38% were foreign-born. The sample w as fairly heterogeneous in terms of UGPAs, MCAT scores, clinical perfo rmance grades, and NBME I scores. Results of the first regression anal ysis indicated that mean clinical performance was not related to any o f the undergraduate predictors of performance or to the students' demo graphics. The second regression analysis indicated that MCAT scores an d cumulative science UGPAs were related to performance an the NBME I, as were country of origin and sex. The students in the top and bottom 25% differed significantly in their scores on the NBME I, but not in t heir clinical performances. Conclusion. Although UGPAs and MCAT scores are good indicators of NBME I performance, they are still not useful in predicting clinical performance, even when the students' data are t aken from the same undergraduate institution.