Rate of incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with compensatedviral cirrhosis

BACKGROUND. Cirrhosis of viral etiology due to hepatitis B virus (HBV) or h epatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcin oma (WCC). The current study evaluated the rate of incidence of HCC in pati ents with compensated cirrhosis of viral etiology. METHODS. Two hundred fifty-nine cirrhotic patients (66 hepatitis B surface antigen [HBsAg] positive, 166 HCV positive, and 27 HBsAg/HCV positive) were longitudinally examined every 6 months by serum alpha-fetoprotein test and liver ultrasonography. The rates of incidence of HCC were calculated by th e person-years method. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cum ulative probability of HCC development. Differences in survival time were e valuated by a log rank test. Independent predictors of HCC development were estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. RESULTS. During a mean follow-up of 64.5 months, HCC developed in 51 (19.7% ) patients: in 34 of 166 HCV positive subjects (20.5%) (mean follow-up, 66. 3 months), in 6 of 66 of those HBsAg positive (9.1%) (mean follow-up, 55.06 months), and in 11 of 27 of those with dual HBsAg/HCV infection (40.7%) (m ean follow-up, 76.4 months). The rate of incidence of HCC per 100 person-ye ars of follow-up was 3.7 in HCV positive subjects, 2.0 in those HBsAg posit ive, and 6.4 in those with dual infection. Cumulative HCC appearance rates in HBsAg positive, HCV positive, and HBsAg/HCV positive subgroups were 10%, 21%, and 23% at 5 years, 16%, 28%, and 45% at 10 years, and 16%, 40%, and 55% at 13 years, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that age >50 years (hazard risk [IIR], 4.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.1-9.4), ma le gender (HR, 2.8; 95% CI = 1.1-5.3), and HBsAg/HCV coinfection (HR, 2.3; 95% CI = 1.1-4.6) were independent predictors of HCC development CONCLUSIONS. These findings confirm that male gender and more advanced age (>50 years) are risk factors for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Furthermor e, the data indicate that subjects with dual HBsAg/HCV infection are at hig hest risk for HCC. Surveillance programs for early detection of HCC should focus especially on these patients. Cancer 1999;85:2132-7. (C) 1999 America n Cancer Society.