Integrated global system model for climate policy assessment: Feedbacks and sensitivity studies

Alternative policies to address global climate change are being debated in many nations and within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To help provide objective and comprehensive analyses in support of this process, we have developed a model of the global climate system consis ting of coupled sub-models of economic growth and associated emissions, nat ural fluxes, atmospheric chemistry, climate, and natural terrestrial ecosys tems. The framework of this Integrated Global System Model is described and the results of sample runs and a sensitivity analysis are presented. This multi-component model addresses most of the major anthropogenic and natural processes involved in climate change and also is computationally efficient . As such, it can be used effectively to study parametric and structural un certainty and to analyze the costs and impacts of many policy alternatives. Initial runs of the model have helped to define and quantify a number of fe edbacks among the sub-models, and to elucidate the geographical variations in several variables that are relevant to climate science and policy. The e ffect of changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on the up take of carbon and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide by land ecosystem s is one potentially important feedback which has been identified. The sens itivity analysis has enabled preliminary assessment of the effects of uncer tainty in the economic, atmospheric chemistry, and climate sub-models as th ey influence critical model results such as predictions of temperature, sea level, rainfall, and ecosystem productivity. We conclude that uncertainty regarding economic growth, technological change, deep oceanic circulation, aerosol radiative forcing, and cloud processes are important influences on these outputs.