Using program theory models in evaluation of industrial modernization programs: three case studies

Program theory oriented evaluations involve construction of a model that de scribes the logic and context of the program and enables the evaluator to c heck on program progress and impact before the program is conducted. Such c onstructions could be done in a multitude of ways: this paper describes the use of a particular tool called chains of reasoning. Chains of reasoning i s;a combination of text and a graphic image which presents the activities o f a program or project, the goals to be attained, additional assumptions an d the links between them. The paper uses three cases studies from Norwegian industrial modernization programs to demonstrate the strength of this tool in different settings. The first case study is a formative evaluation, the second an impact/summative evaluation and the third an additionality analy sis. The paper concludes with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the tool. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.