Developing the 'right' breakthrough product/service: an umbrella methodology - Part A

Breakthrough products and services (BTP/S) have been found to contribute si gnificantly to corporate profits and market position. However, because such products are designed to meet needs that may not yet be apparent in the ma rket and have no historical point of reference, traditional market forecast ing techniques are unable to provide accurate predictions of market success for them. An alternative to traditional approaches is explored in this res earch paper. it involves combining forecasts of quantifiable environmental variables with qualitative analysis of uncertainties through scenario creat ion and investigation. This 'umbrella approach' assesses future goals, need s, desires, and product development direction, and works backward to the pr esent to determine what steps must be completed to reach that end state. Th e process of continuous monitoring allows firms to determine which pathway they are following, and to incorporate current information into their produ ct development processes.