MODELING FOR LITIGATION - MIXING QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES

A contractor to the channel tunnel project instigated litigation to cl aim for the costs of disruption and delay. We used several interacting models to make the case for the claim more persuasive, coherent, and verifiable. Mixing qualitative modeling (large cognitive maps) with in fluence models and with system dynamics simulation modeling improved t he quality of the claim. Quality, in this case, being that the modelin g process was understandable to the client to the extent that it could argue the claim in court, that every aspect was expected to be transp arent to the judge, and that it was robust and defensible management s cience. Cycling between modeling approaches gave benefits that could n ot have been attained by either hard or soft modeling in isolation. Th e claim ultimately was settled satisfactorily out of court with the cl ient acknowledging that the modeling played a significant role.