Bayesian population dynamics modeling using uncertain historical catch, surveyed abundances, and biological priors

A Bayesian assessment of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, is carried out, using (i) a series of recent ab undance estimates, (ii) biological information about bowhead maturity, prod uctivity, and survival, and (iii) historical catch data with a rough uncert ainty estimate. This analysis permits a formal combination of these three s ources of evidence using a population dynamics model, producing posterior d istributions for current stock status and trend. Of particular interest is the historical catch component, which, though incomplete and subject to est imation uncertainty, has previously been treated as exactly known during th e formation of management advice. Here, the historical catch record is used to estimate within-year catch uncertainty, adjusting for weather condition s and the annual size of the commercial whaling fleet, using a running vari ance estimator. Resulting estimates for quantities related to current manag ement are insensitive to catch record uncertainty in this analysis, and the posterior depends strongly on the recent survey data.