Reassessing a proposed low-energy strategy for the UK

Predictions, as made in Leach et al. (A low-energy strategy for the United Kingdom. Science Reviews Ltd., Austria: International Institute for Environ ment and Development, 1979.) have been compared with actual values for subs equent years. Their disparities are discussed, together with the associated lessons. It would have been unreasonable to expect the 1979 predictive pro cedure to anticipate the "dash for gas", but it can be realised in retrospe ct that greater emphasis should have been placed on the likely increasing c oncern (of successive governments) with environmental protection. In any st rategy, the main mechanism (within a government's control) to achieve energ y thrift is to raise the unit prices for (i) all fossil fuels and electrici ty derived from them and especially for (ii) polluting fuels for private ca rs and aircraft. These measures would simultaneously reduce the overall rat e of environmental degradation. There should also be more introductory subs idies, provided by the state, for the implementation of all energy-thrift m easures and equipment (e.g. combined heat-and-power plant), that satisfy th e criterion of achieving a pay-back period of less than 7 years. (C) 1999 E lsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.