A long term perspective on Ag-biotech

The prediction of the future direction of the Ag-biotech industry is fraugh t with difficulties, yet it is a valuable exercise. Such assessments of the impact of biotech on a global scale needs to concentrate on direct effects including, an evaluation of societal needs as well the requirements for fo od, feed,raw material and energy production. The world has to move towards a sustainable food production system that is capable of feeding an increasi ng population on less land. There are two targets for biotechnology, input and output traits. The former mainly concern those that affect plant nutrit ion and adaptation to biotic and abiotic stresses. The target is to increas e yields with reduced external inputs. Herbicide and insecticide resistant crops are already being grown and there has been some progress with fungus resistance. Future advances will concentrate on abiotic stress factors such as drought, heat and salt tolerance. The 'holy grail' of developing nitrog en-fixing cereals is being explored but will take time as it is a complex s ystem. Anticipated advances in the acquisition of 'output' traits are, in t he short term, the modifications of the starch, protein, oil and sugar cont ents of plants. In the longer term the development of 'functional' foods (e g. enriched with vitamins), 'cured' foods (eg. removal of allergenic factor s) is predicted, along with modifications that affect food digestibility. F uture advances in genomics will deliver an increasing range of genes with p otential to develop totally new biochemical pathways in plants.