THE PAGE95 MODEL - INTEGRATING THE SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS OF GLOBAL WARMING

PAGE is a computer simulation model developed in 1992 for policy analy sis of the global warming problem. This paper surveys key developments in understanding the global warming problem that have occurred since 1992. For example, anthropogenic sulphates have been found to have a s ignificant cooling effect. Halocarbons, once thought to be the most po tent greenhouse gases, are now believed to have only a slight global w arming effect because they destroy ozone, itself a strong greenhouse g as. Furthermore, case studies in various regions of the world have imp roved our ability to predict future damages from global warming. These developments have strong implications for the economic consequences o f the greenhouse effect and motivated an update of the PAGE model. Thi s paper discusses the new model version, PAGE95. and conclusions for g lobal warming policy analysis.