DYNAMIC ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CO2 EMISSION CONTROL IN CANADA AND THE USA

In this paper, an energy process model with geometric distributed lag (GDL) demand, called the energy GDL process model, was updated to aid in CO2 emission control policy analysis. An updated energy GDL process model of supplies and demands of oil, gas, electricity and coal in Ca nada and the USA was constructed to assess the impacts of controls on CO2 emission in Canada and the USA. This model was formulated, constru cted and solved with the updated GDL version of the Waterloo energy mo delling system (WATEMS-GDL), which uses the new decoupling algorithm, to calculate an intertemporal equilibrium of energy supplies and deman ds. A comparison of scenarios suggests that delay in launching a CO2 e mission control program can be very costly. Furthermore, given the cur rent array of fuels, supply technologies and consumer response, it see ms impossible to reach the Toronto conference targets, i.e. reducing t o 50% below the 1988 CO2 emission level by 2030; significant changes a re required in fuels, technologies technologies or life-styles.