Climatic noise and potential predictability of monthly mean temperature over China

In this paper, based on the data at 162 stations selected over China from 1 960 to 1991 the climatic noise and potential predictability of monthly mean temperature have been studied. The method of estimating climatic noise is based on the idea of Yamamoto et al. (1985) and the potential predictabilit y is expressed by the ratio of the estimated inter-annual variation to the estimated natural variation (or climatic noise). Generally the climatic noi se of monthly mean temperature increases with latitude and altitude and var ies with season. The continental air from Siberia and Mongolia plays a sign ificant role and the ocean acts as an adjustor and a reductor in the climat ic noise except for the tropical Pacific ocean in transitional season. The potential predictability is diversified from month to month and one station to another, but generally the monthly mean temperature over China is poten tially predictable at statistical significance level 0.10. The results sugg est that we could not ask a climate model to predict the climate with satis factory results worldwide in all seasons and that the regional model could be a hopeful way to predict the climate.