Determining Ontario's supply and requirements for ophthalmologists in 2000and 2005: 1. Methods

Background: We performed a study to determine the supply of and requirement s for ophthalmologists in Ontario in 2000 and 2005. In this paper we descri be our methods. Methods: The future supply of ophthalmologists was estimated by means of it erative multiple regression analysis using the baseline number of ophthalmo logists, the number of ophthalmology residents and the numbers of ophthalmo logists entering and exiting the workforce between 1989 and 2004. Data were obtained from the Ontario Physician Human Resource Data Centre, Statistics Canada, the Ontario Ministry of Finance and residency program directors of Ontario universities. We calculated requirements using four models. The ph ysician:population ratio method used an ophthalmologist:population ratio (1 :29 650) proposed by the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada and Statistics Canada population projections for 2000 and 2005. The utiliz ation-based, substitution and needs-based models used Ontario Health Insura nce Plan data for 1995. The supply and requirements are expressed as full-t ime equivalents, defined as the average number of minutes worked by ophthal mologists in 1995, The 401 ophthalmologists practising in Ontario in 1995 a ccounted for 452 full-time equivalents.