We investigate distinctive patterns of police contacts among heterogeneous
subpopulations of youths in the early transition stages of their criminal c
areers. We argue that research focussing upon heterogeneity and the initial
transition stages of criminality can provide insights into behavioural dyn
amics previously overlooked in the study of the onset and development of cr
iminal careers. Using computerized police archival data from a large wester
n Canadian city, we employ event history survival models to estimate patter
ns of onset and persistence for delinquent careers over six-month intervals
in the early stages of police contact. Our results provide strong evidence
of meaningful short-term change in offending among multiple levels of yout
h subgroups. Some youths appear to offend only briefly and then desist, whi
le others continue offending and at a higher rate. However, there also appe
ar to be patterns of heterogeneity within as well as between these subgroup
s of young offenders during the early stages of criminal careers.