Probabilistic performance assessment of wind energy conversion systems

This paper describes the development of a general probabilistic model of an autonomous wind energy conversion system (WECS) composed of several wind t urbines (wind farm) connected to a load and a battery storage. The proposed technique allows the simulation of wind farms containing identical or diff erent wind turbines types and considers a bi-directional flow of power in a nd out of the battery. The model is based upon a simple procedure to estima te the joint probability distribution function of the total available wind power and that of the turbines operating modes due to hardware failure. A m ethodology is also developed to use the proposed model to determine an uppe r limit on the size of the battery storage required for a given number of t urbines to satisfy the load with a certain expected energy not supplied (EE NS). The model can also be used to evaluate the energy purchased from or in jected to the grid in the case of grid-connected systems.