A model of elephant conservation that includes illegal poaching, enforcemen
t effort, and legal culling is used to analyze enforcement and elephant pop
ulations for alternative policies, with and without legal trade in ivory. C
onsistent with previous theoretical models, banning trade may increase or d
ecrease equilibrium stocks. As an empirical application, information for Za
mbia, along with sensitivity analysis, are used to show that the ivory trad
e ban is more effective in conserving the African elephant (Loxodonta afric
ana) than in permitting open trade. However, in all situations, current ele
phant populations likely exceed optimal levels as perceived by the range st
ates, and further reductions in elephant numbers might be expected.