The paper introduces four scenarios for sustainable economic structures in
the Netherlands for 2030. The aim of this paper is to provide possible answ
ers to what a sustainable future might look like in terms of alternative ec
onomic structures. To this end, an empirical economy-ecology model is devel
oped and calibrated to four different scenarios indicating different develo
pment paths and different perspectives on sustainability. In the first scen
ario, called Strong Together, environmental goals are very ambitions world-
wide. In the second scenario, Strong Alone, environmental policy abroad is
less ambitious. The third scenario, Negotiated Sustainability, broadly refl
ects a balancing of different goals. In the fourth and last scenario, Weak
Sustainability, only low cost environmental measures are taken and environm
ental objectives are relatively loose. The applied economic model with envi
ronmental modules optimises economic growth subject to different environmen
tal objectives that are in line with the different scenarios and perspectiv
es on sustainability. It appears that both strong (environmental) technolog
ical progress and substantial structural changes are necessary for economic
growth and environmental quality to be compatible. However, some trade-off
between them remains. Some sectors lose market share in all scenarios, inc
luding most energy-intensive and agricultural sectors. On the other hand, '
winners' are dependent on the level of the critical environmental objective
(s) and hence differ between the scenarios. Explicit attention is paid to t
he so-called 'ecological trade balance', which measures the (environmental)
balance between the domestic production structure and the domestic consump
tion structure. Embarking on sustainable economic structures implies that t
he Netherlands 'shifts' environmental pressure abroad. (C) 1999 Elsevier Sc
ience B.V. All rights reserved.