We. Bardsley et Cp. Pearson, An experiment in subjective graphical quantile estimation applied to the generalized extreme value distribution, HYDRO SCI J, 44(3), 1999, pp. 399-405
Citations number
4
Categorie Soggetti
Environment/Ecology
Journal title
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
Fitting flood prediction curves by eye to the data of return period plots i
s an intuitive approach to estimating n-year flood discharge magnitudes fro
m single-site data. However, the subjective nature of this "procedure" mean
s that it is unlikely to be adopted as a recognized flood estimation techni
que. An experiment with a group of volunteers demonstrates that some indivi
duals are capable of subjectively fitting generalized extreme value curves
to yield flood quantile estimates from simulated data with an accuracy comp
arable to probability weighted moments. This encourages the development of
alternative formal flood estimation procedures based on some form of patter
n recognition. Such procedures might mimic the more talented individuals' a
pproach to curve fitting, without the disadvantage of subjectivity.