A stochastic model of preference change and its application to 1992 presidential election panel data

The authors present and test a model for the evolution of preferences. Pers onal preferences are represented by rankings with possible ties and are pos ited to change under the influence of "tokens" of information in the enviro nment. These tokens may not be directly controlled or observed by the resea rcher. The authors apply the model to 1992 National Election Study panel da ta (W. E. Miller, D. R. Kinder. S. J. Rosenstone, & NES, 1993). The paramet er estimates suggest that negative campaigning played a major role in the i nformation flow. Democrats and Republicans experienced a barrage of contrad icting information about Perot; Democrats, Republicans, and Independents ea ch received or perceived different information. A shift in the perception o f the candidates led the Republicans to evaluate Bush and Perot less favora bly after the election. These results demonstrate the model's potential to analyze persuasion as a real-time stochastic process and without a media co ntent analysis.