Fisheries management in the twenty-first century: will new paradigms apply?

The last decade has seen growing concern at the uncertain effectiveness of most fisheries assessment and management approaches as reflected by trends in global landing statistics published by FAO. These imply full exploitatio n of the majority of fishery resources and a serious overcapitalization of fleets at the global level. Projected increases in demand, future prices fo r fisheries products, and impacts of growing world populations on the ecosy stem all require an urgent search for improved management frameworks. Improved management of fisheries requires, first, an understanding of the a xioms and working assumptions underlying the current approaches and how the se evolved in response to regional or local conditions and target species. This should promote integration of methodologies which better reflect local situations and can be expressed in the form of one or more working paradig ms. These paradigms should incorporate ecosystem considerations, including environmental fluctuations and socio-economic factors. They should not assu me that current production levels are independent of natural fluctuations a nd human impacts and should recognize the dangers of maintaining open acces s to marine resources throughout their seasonal cycle, life history and dis tribution range. `Wide-use' management paradigms incorporating explicit user rights, partici patory management and inputs from a variety of disciplines and stakeholders are becoming popular, but must operate within a hierarchy of pre-negotiate d responses to pre-specified limit reference points so that social and econ omic options are not lost because conservation issues have not been given p recedence. Academic and research institutions could aid the management process by more participation, by promoting interdisciplinary teamwork with stakeholders a nd by breaking down excessive specialization and regionalization within fis heries studies. On the management side, the key elements for improving the situation seem to be consultative management frameworks that explicitly inc orporate `watchdog' functions and implement `precautionary' approaches to m anagement. Risk-averse strategies are appropriate but, given the high level of uncertainty that managers face with natural systems, `fail-safe' manage ment with redundancy, both in the data sources they rely on for fishery per formance and in the management measures applied, seem appropriate. For near-shore resources, governments could consider partly devolving manag ement responsibility to appropriate levels in society, involving coastal co mmunities, individual use rights and other vehicles for allocating access. Changing emphasis of modern technology from fisheries exploitation to impro ved management will be one aspect of successful future management systems, perhaps incorporating geotemporally defined access rights to near-shore and shelf resources. Recent international agreements, including the formal ratification of the L aw of the Sea, show that governments are prepared for more ecologically app ropriate approaches. The key stake of the fisheries industry in sustainable fisheries development needs supporting, particularly for developing countr ies, now the major source of aquatic marine products. High priorities for m anagement of marine resources are rebuilding depleted resources and restori ng habitats, with concern for maintaining genetic and ecological diversity. There will be a need to consider impacts of global trade on conservation o f resources for future generations, if proper management is to be maintaine d in the face of growing demand. International agreements of relevance to future management paradigms which are compatible with the Law of the Sea Convention (and each other), include Agenda 21 of UNCED, the Biodiversity Convention, the UN Agreement on Strad dling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks, the Compliance Agreemen t and the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries. Such agreements, r atified or now open for signature, provide a comprehensive basis for future `customary law' that can assist authorities in constructing appropriate ma nagement frameworks. Current concern remains with application of these agre ements in international waters, where limited access as required for proper management still has not been established.