Drinking episodes during the treatment (relapses or lapses) of alcohol-depe
ndent patients is predicted from clinical ratings of patients and individua
l background data such as alcohol drinking history and social status. The p
robability of these relapses (or lapses) is determined up to three days in
advance using a logistic regression procedure, The study group consisted of
33 male alcohol-dependent persons, who participated in a treatment program
. Clinical ratings were performed three times a week by a trained person du
ring a visit to the clinic. The questionnaire contained 23 different items
about irritation, craving for alcohol, sleep disturbances, etc. The relapse
s were either self-reported or detected by a biochemical marker in a urine
sample that was taken daily. The most important factor for a relapse in alc
ohol drinking was shown to be if the patient already had had one relapse du
ring the treatment. Other important clinical factors were the levels of irr
itation and autonomic disturbances. None of the variables measuring mood sh
ifts was significant. Family conditions during childhood were the most impo
rtant background variables. The predictions turned out to have a rather hig
h specificity, but the sensitivity was lower. Half of the relapses were not
predicted by an increased probability for relapse. Self-reported relapses
were predictable from preceding interviews and were also less frequent comp
ared to those detected objectively by the biochemical markers. (C) 1999 Els
evier Science Inc. All rights reserved.