In the present work, modifications of water-matrix interactions in Grana Pa
dano (GP) cheese were studied using thermogravimetric techniques in order t
o provide an index of ripening. These techniques represent a simple and rap
id method for determining water content and for monitoring its behaviour in
ripening GP cheese. It is possible to evaluate the quantity of water prese
nt in the matrix, as well as the different types of water bound to it both
qualitatively and quantitatively. Samples of traditional GP cheese produced
in the winter season (same day), and collected at different ripening stage
s (5,10,14,19 months), were investigated. When statistical models of the ST
ARMAX (Space Time Autoregressive Moving Average exogenous variables) class,
augmented with surface trends, were fitted to thermoanalytical data, valua
ble insights into the chemical nature of the ripening were acheived with go
od predictive performances. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reser
ved.