A MODEL TO PREDICT LONG-TERM SUSTAINED RESPONSE TO INTERFERON THERAPYIN CHRONIC HEPATITIS-C

Interferon therapy is used widely for chronic hepatitis C but only a m inority of treated patients achieve a long-lasting sustained response. We have developed, by logistic regression, a mathematical model to es timate the probability of sustained response in an individual patient with chronic hepatitis C when treated with interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha ). The model, which includes age, sex, disease duration, pretreatment serum gamma-glutamyl-transpeptidase, alanine aminotransferase and viru s genotype, was developed from a database of 307 patients and validate d in a new set of 200 patients. It performed well as goodness-of-fit ( P = 0.71 and P = 0.15 in the development and test sample, respectively ) and discrimination (area under receiver operating curve = 0.79 in th e development and 0.78 in the test sample, respectively). This model m ay provide decision support in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C wi th IFN-alpha.