Changes and risks of oilseed production under conditions of Agenda 2000

Within existing market regulations oilseeds are favoured by high compensati on payments which also prevents from income risks due to price changes on t he world market. On the other side oilseed production is restricted by guar antee areas for food oilseeds and upper limits for oilmeals from non-food. These restrictions will become more severe if guarantee areas have to be re duced equal to high set-aside shares aiming at supply control in the cereal s sector. Food-oilseed production is especially hampered by these measures in the new Laender such that production potentials are transformed into non -food production. The proposal of Agenda 2000 affects oilseed production. Premia will be redu ced and more or less decoupled from production of Grandes Cultures. On the other side there are options to overcome restrictions for oilseed productio n within the Blair-House agreement. Economic competitiveness will mainly be influenced by price relationships with cereals. Calculations based on a sa mple of about 1000 representative farms show, that food oilseed areas will significantly be reduced under conditions of less favourable price conditio ns. Oilseed areas of the base situation will be reached with price relation s of about 1.75 : 1 in the new Laender, or of 2.2 : 1 in Western Germany. O ilseed production will be much more concentrated on regions with high oilse ed yields. Under favourable price conditions production potentials will be mobilised especially in the new Laender. Nevertheless, economics of oilseed production will become more risky and more depending on price changes of t he world market.