Crime, urban flight, and the consequences for cities

This paper analyzes the link between rising city crime rates and urban flig ht. Each additional reported crime is associated with a roughly one-person decline in city population. Almost all of the crime-related population decl ine is attributable to increased out-migration rather than a decrease in ne w arrivals. Households that leave the city because of crime are much more l ikely to remain within the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) th an those that leave the city for other reasons. Migration decisions of high ly educated households and those with children are particularly responsive to changes in crime. Causality appears to run from rising crime rates to ci ty depopulation.