Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China

This paper presents a model for simulating country-wide changes in the land use pattern of China. It is based upon an empirical analysis of the spatia l distribution of land use types in China which takes into account socioeco nomic as well as geophysical variables. The empirical analysis indicates th at a reasonably complete description of the land use distribution can be ma de by including demographic, soil-related, geomorphological and climatic va riables. A multi-scale approach is followed to capture top-down as well as bottom-up factors affecting land use allocation. Competition between differ ent land use types determines which changes will actually take place. The m ost important land use conversions in China, caused by urbanization, desert ification and afforestation, are simulated for a scenario based upon a tren d analysis of present land use dynamics. The spatially explicit results all ow an analysis of the consequences of a decrease in cultivated area and rel ated production capacity. A preliminary analysis shows that the average pro duction capacity of the lost arable lands is somewhat less than the average production capacity of all agricultural lands together. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.