Special Issue Political Data Yearbook 1999 - Is local politics local? French evidence

In advanced democracies, are local political decisions determined by local events? Or are they really shaped by national forces? For the United States case, the evidence on this question is mixed. For the French case, the foc us here, the evidence is also mixed, but less hard. In fact, for cantonal e lections, in many ways archtypical local affairs, relevant systematic findi ngs are virtually absent. We ask whether the cantonal elections of the Fift h Republic can be better understood as national, rather than local, contest s. Our analysis leads us to the conclusion that the basic answer is, 'yes'. There appear several theoretical reasons for this, which we give an accoun t of. Further, we go on to show that cantonal races can actually serve as b arometers to forecast upcoming national races.