DECLINING ADMISSIONS TO ITALIAN UNIVERSIT IES BY 2008

For the first time since Italian Unification (1861), the number of pot ential entrants to Italy's universities is declining rapidly. This sit uation is due to the fall in the birthrate which began in the 1960s, f irst and most dramatically in the northern regions, later and less spe ctacularly in the rest of the country. The present study, based on the population of young people of university age, shows that their number will fall by 31-35% between 1995 and 2008. An international compariso n brings to light the unique nature of the problems that characterize the Italian context. The hypothetical scenarios for the evolution of t he student population, based on various envolment rates (by age and by level), indicate the possibility of large regional imbalances and eve ntual decline for the university system if, as has traditionally been the case, it remains almost exclusively geared to educating young peop le (at present only 5% of the 20 or over age group holds a university degree, corresponding to at least 4 years post secondary school educat ion). Yet this is also a historically unique occasion to completely re structure higher education in Italy, made possible by the fall in the number of young people and by the programmed retirement of almost half of existing university teachers.