Cost-effective allocation of research funds for emerging technologies

Developers of emerging technologies, and the agencies who:fund them, need a n alternative to traditional cost-based risk prediction methods to help the m predict how the costs of their technologies might change under future dep loyment scenarios. Often the only data available for predicting risk are th e limited but complex data generated by field testing emerging technologies in the prototype phase of development. This paper presents a conceptual fr amework for evaluating cost and performance constraints of emerging technol ogies; the framework can be used to prioritize the allocation of research a nd development funds for the development of such technologies.