Exploring the correlation between Southern Africa NDVI and Pacific sea surface temperatures: results for the 1998 maize growing season

Several studies have identified statistically significant correlations betw een Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and NDVI anomalies in Souther n Africa. The potential predictive value of the relationship was explored f or the 1998 maize growing season. Cross-validation techniques suggested a m ore useful relationship for regions of wet anomaly than for regions of dry anomaly. Observed 1998 NDVI anomaly patterns were consistent with this resu lt. Wet anomalies were observed as expected, but wide areas of expected dry anomalies exhibited average or above-average greeness.