The extreme precipitation event of 11 to 16 February 1996 over South Africa

The extreme precipitation event of 11 to 16 February 1996 was one of four s ignificant events during the 1995/96 rainfall season over southern Africa. Extensive flooding and related damage was recorded at this time, with histo rical records showing one of the highest flood peaks of the past century. T his extreme event is analysed using a combination of mesoscale numerical mo delling and Lagrangian trajectory analysis, allowing a comprehensive three- dimensional reconstruction of the associated atmospheric structure and its evolution. The adjustments in the circulation patterns as well as the timin g and contribution of different moisture source regions are clearly importa nt in influencing the duration and intensity of this extreme rainfall event over southern Africa. The moisture that contributed to precipitation durin g the event, as well as to the south-western part of the country, was impor ted mainly from the Indian Ocean to the east and south-east, suggesting tha t the equatorial Indian Ocean may not be the predominant source of moisture as previously believed.