Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is a highly cost-effective treatment for
symptoms of the menopause such as hot flushes (flashes). A number of econom
ic evaluations have indicated that it may also be a cost-effective therapy
for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. However, the
se evaluations are based on the premise that HRT will reduce cardiovascular
disease by 30 to 50%. Recent evidence casts doubt on its effectiveness at
preventing cardiovascular disease, certainly as a secondary preventive ther
apy. Furthermore, HRT is likely to increase the incidence of breast cancer.
If the effect of HRT on the cardiovascular system is slight or nonexistent
, but its effect on breast cancer is modest or strong, then HRT is unlikely
to be a cost-effective treatment for asymptomatic women at low risk of ost
eoporosis. However, the unwanted effects of HRT on the breast may be signif
icantly reduced by targeting therapy to those women with low bone mass and
who have other risk factors for fracture. Such a strategy is likely to be m
ore cost effective than a strategy which allows asymptomatic women with low
fracture risk to take HRT in the long term. As selective estrogen receptor
modulators (SERMs) aggravate menopausal symptoms they are not likely to be
an alternative for most perimenopausal women. Therefore, SERMs are more li
kely to be a competitor to existing and forthcoming bisphosphonates rather
than HRT.