Policy divergence in multicandidate probabilistic spatial voting

Authors
Citation
J. Adams, Policy divergence in multicandidate probabilistic spatial voting, PUBL CHOICE, 100(1-2), 1999, pp. 103-122
Citations number
32
Categorie Soggetti
Politucal Science & public Administration
Journal title
PUBLIC CHOICE
ISSN journal
00485829 → ACNP
Volume
100
Issue
1-2
Year of publication
1999
Pages
103 - 122
Database
ISI
SICI code
0048-5829(199907)100:1-2<103:PDIMPS>2.0.ZU;2-5
Abstract
Existing models of multicandidate spatial competition with probabilistic vo ting typically predict a high degree of policy convergence, yet in actual e lections candidates advocate quite divergent sets of policies. What account s for this disparity between theory and empirical observation? I introduce two variations on the basic probabilistic vote model which may account for candidate policy divergence: 1) a model which incorporates candidate-specif ic variables, so that candidates may enjoy nonpolicy-related electoral adva ntages (or disadvantages); 2) a model which allows nonzero correlations bet ween the random terms associated with voters' candidate utilities, thereby capturing situations where voters view two or more candidates as similar on nonpolicy grounds. I report candidate equilibrium analyses for each model, which show far greater policy divergence than exists under the standard pr obabilistic vote model. I then analyze the strategic logic which underlies these results.