Reliability growth - A new graphical model

A new reliability growth model is presented which is simpler to plot and fi ts the data more closely than the Duane model over the range of Duane slope s normally observed during a reliability growth programme. The model is der ived from variance stabilization transformation theory. The problem, inhere nt in Duane's model, of providing too much influence to earlier failures is overcome. A method is also presented of comparing different models which h ave different y-axes. Extensive simulations were conducted and the results indicate that for Duane slopes less than 0.5 the new model is more effectiv e. The leverage and influence aspects of both models are evaluated by means of Cook's distance. Finally, two published datasets are analysed and the f indings confirm the simulation results. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Son s, Ltd.