ANALYSIS OF THE VIABILITY OF A GIANT PANDA POPULATION

1. A model was set up to simulate the dynamics of a giant panda Ailuro poda melanoleuca population, All parameters in the model were taken fr om an existing panda population in the Shuidonggou Valley area of the Qinling Mountains, China. 2. The model projects population dynamics an d assesses population viability under changing conditions. 3. Small, f ragmented populations face potential risks in terms of genetics and de mographic processes. This study concerns the latter. 4. The simulation indicated that: (i) the population is stable under present conditions (but note that the model does not incorporate environmental stochasti city); (ii) the environmental carrying capacity is the most important factor restricting population increase; (iii) poaching would greatly a ffect the probability of population survival; (iv) increasing the surv ival of individuals under 1 year of age would increase population pers istence substantially; (v) reducing subadult female mortality would ac celerate population growth; (vi) shortening the interbirth interval wo uld allow more rapid population growth, and its effect is greater than changing other parameters, but may not be practicable; and (vii) immi gration and reduction in young male mortality are of limited benefit t o this small population but may be important in practical conservation management. 5. The model suggests management strategies for giant pan da conservation.