The use of hourly model-generated soundings to forecast mesoscale phenomena. Part II: Initial assessment in forecasting nonconvective strong wind gusts
Re. Hart et Gs. Forbes, The use of hourly model-generated soundings to forecast mesoscale phenomena. Part II: Initial assessment in forecasting nonconvective strong wind gusts, WEATHER FOR, 14(3), 1999, pp. 461-469
This paper presents results from pilot studies of the use of model-generate
d hourly soundings to forecast nonconvectively produced strong wind,ousts.
Model soundings from the operational Eta and Meso Eta Models were used for
a period of 14 months in 1996 and 1997. Skill does exist in forecasting str
ong to damaging surface wind gusts, although the forecasts are at the mercy
of the model-based boundary layer stability forecast. The wind gust foreca
sts are more accurate during the daytime, when the boundary layer depth and
stability is more accurately forecasted and also more conducive to vertica
l mixing of boundary layer winds. The results of this preliminary evaluatio
n show that the model sounding-based forecasts provide a reasonable predict
ion tool for nonconvective strong wind gusts. Additionally, the results war
rant more complete evaluations once the dataset has grown to sufficient siz
e.