The use of hourly model-generated soundings to forecast mesoscale phenomena. Part II: Initial assessment in forecasting nonconvective strong wind gusts

This paper presents results from pilot studies of the use of model-generate d hourly soundings to forecast nonconvectively produced strong wind,ousts. Model soundings from the operational Eta and Meso Eta Models were used for a period of 14 months in 1996 and 1997. Skill does exist in forecasting str ong to damaging surface wind gusts, although the forecasts are at the mercy of the model-based boundary layer stability forecast. The wind gust foreca sts are more accurate during the daytime, when the boundary layer depth and stability is more accurately forecasted and also more conducive to vertica l mixing of boundary layer winds. The results of this preliminary evaluatio n show that the model sounding-based forecasts provide a reasonable predict ion tool for nonconvective strong wind gusts. Additionally, the results war rant more complete evaluations once the dataset has grown to sufficient siz e.