Using intervention analysis and Timber Mart-South price data, we test hypot
heses concerning the impact of Hurricane Hugo on regional stumpage prices.
In both the hardwood sawtimber and pine pulpwood markets, a gradual die-dow
n price effect was detected, but a persistently higher or lower price was n
ot found. In the hardwood pulpwood market, we could not even identify a sig
nificant price drop immediately followed the occurrence of Hugo. Only in th
e pine sawtimber market were we able to detect a higher price of $6.00 per
thousand board feet in the long run. However, our examination of an average
price series for pine sawtimber across the southern United States suggests
that this effect could have come from structural shifts in the regional ma
rket, rather than from Hugo's impact. Our empirical evidence thus rejects t
he hypothesis of a persistently higher or lower price in favor of the alter
native that Hugo caused only a gradual die-down price effect.