An undergraduate student flow model: Australian higher education

The probability of completing and the time to complete an undergraduate cou rse are likely to vary by the age and sex of the student, and the field of study undertaken. In this paper a Markov chain is used to model the movemen t of undergraduates through the higher education system in Australia. Given the age of the student when they commence a course, this model provides es timates of the probability of them completing the course. It also provides estimates for the mean time a student takes to complete the course, and mea n time they spend in the higher education system.