The long-run diffusion and techno-economic performance of national telephone networks: a case study of Ireland, 1922-1998

The telephone is one of the most widely used technologies in the advanced i ndustrial economies, typically achieving a household penetration rate in ex cess of 90%. Over the course of this century, the plain old telephone syste m (POTS) has become a critical techno-social infrastructure for all sorts o f economic, social and personal interactions. The question arises as to wha t has driven the widespread diffusion of the telephone? How can we describe the adoption of telephony as a core element in economic and social affairs in modern societies? In particular, how can we account for the great dispa rities in the rate and pace of the diffusion patterns of POTS, taking accou nt of different national and historical contexts? This paper critically int errogates influential universal models or 'theory-led' explanations of the diffusion of telephone systems, especially their capacity to account for th e empirically observable national variations. The authors test these models with respect to the historical trajectory of telecommunications developmen t in Ireland, drawing on unique time-series data related to the actual patt erns of telephone adoption, use and utility. The authors also re-assess the extent to which existing diffusion models throw some light on aspects of o bservable diffusion processes and patterns. A key conclusion from the appro ach adopted here is that in themselves, abstract deductive models are at be st unsatisfactory. Whilst a combination of such 'universal' factors derived from more deductive models may be useful in elucidating different parts of the story, they are not sufficiently nuanced or adequate to describe or fr ame the complex stories of different national historical experiences. With the Irish case study we have attempted to illustrate the value of a histori cal and empirically based understanding of the socio-economic, political or institutional factors which have served to shape the development of teleco mmunications services and policy in Ireland. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.