Transportation GHG emissions in developing countries. The case of Lebanon

This paper evaluates the contribution of the road transport sector, in a ty pical small developing country, to global greenhouse gas emissions. An inve ntory of transport emissions, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodology, is presented for the base year 1997. The Motor Vehicle Emission Inventory computer based model, with inputs adjusted to the fleet and conditions at hand, is used to predict contributions of different class es of vehicles and to forecast the corresponding emissions for the year 202 0. Emissions reduction and the sensitivity to changes in factors such as fl eet age, fleet technology, average speed and travel volume are assessed. Sc enarios are developed to explore the feasibility and benefits of two differ ent mitigation approaches. The first approach stresses the reduction potent ial of measures related to the fleet age and new technology application. Th e second addresses the effectiveness of transport planning and demand reduc tion in mitigating emissions. The air quality impact of these scenarios is presented. The results bring to light the essence of the problem that techn ical improvements alone, in the existing fleet, will not be able to offset impacts due to the growth in future travel demand. Policy settings to count erbalance the increase in emissions are investigated in that context. (C) 1 999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.