What price information? Modelling threshold probabilities of fetal loss

This paper is an extension of previous work in which an alternative method of measuring the benefits of antenatal screening was proposed. The method i s based on the elicitation of threshold probabilities of fetal loss at whic h women would lx indifferent between having and not having apr amniocentesi s for the prenatal diagnosis of fetal abnormalities. The aim of this paper is to extend the previous work by modelling the preferences of a larger sam ple of women and investigating the consistency and validity of their respon ses. The threshold probabilities are elicited using standard gambles and mo delled using Tobit estimation. The results indicate that it is possible to model these probabilities in this way and that it is possible to obtain a h igh degree of consistency in response to standard gamble questions. While e stablishing the validity of the responses is more difficult there is some e vidence that the technique can provide valid responses. (C) 1999 Elsevier S cience Ltd. All rights reserved.