Estimating Swedish biomass energy supply

Biomass is suggested to supply an increasing amount of energy in Sweden. Th ere have been several studies estimating the potential supply of biomass en ergy, including that of the Swedish Energy Commission in 1995. The Energy C ommission based its estimates of biomass supply on five other analyses whic h presented a wide variation in estimated future supply, in large part due to differing assumptions regarding important factors. In this paper, these studies are assessed, and the estimated potential biomass energy supplies a re discussed regarding prices, technical progress, and energy policy. The s upply of logging residues depends on the demand for wood products and is li mited by ecological, technological, and economic restrictions. The supply o f stemwood from early thinning for energy and of straw from cereal and oil seed production is mainly dependent upon economic considerations. One major factor for the supply of willow and reed canary grass is the size of arabl e land projected to be not needed for food and fodder production. Future su pply of biomass energy depends on energy prices and technical progress, bot h of which are driven by energy policy priorities. Biomass energy has to co mpete with other energy sources as well as with alternative uses of biomass such as forest products and food production. Technical progress may decrea se the costs of biomass energy and thus increase the competitiveness. Econo mic instruments, including carbon taxes and subsidies, and allocation of re search and development resources, are driven by energy policy goals and can change the competitiveness of biomass energy. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Lt d. All rights reserved.