Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions

This paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficien t strategy to adapt to a changing climate. Such a strategy will have to ref lect the long time horizon of, and the prevailing uncertainties about, clim ate change. An intuitively appealing approach therefore seems to be to enha nce the flexibility and resilience of systems to react to and cope with cli mate shocks and extremes, as well as to improve information. In addition, i n the case of quasi-irreversible investments with a long lifetime (e.g. inf rastructure investments, development of coastal zones) precautionary adjust ments may be called for to increase the robustness of structures, or to inc rease the rate of depreciation to allow for earlier replacement. Many of th ese measures may already have to be considered now, and could be worthwhile in their own right, independent of climate change considerations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.